05Retention leak playbook

Keep the promise after the first success.

A retention repair for products that activate or sell but fail to create repeated value, renewal, or durable use.

USE THIS WHEN

Use this when customers reach value or pay, then disappear, cancel, or create recurring support debt. The repair must connect a loss reason to a measurable product change.

01 / BASELINE

Measure before touching the product.

  1. 01Retention or renewal by signup or purchase cohort.
  2. 02First-value behavior for retained and lost users.
  3. 03Cancellation, refund, and inactivity reasons.
  4. 04Support volume and unresolved issues by cohort.

02 / THE 90-MINUTE AUDIT

00:00

Build the smallest cohort view.

Proof: A weekly or monthly table that separates new cohorts.

00:20

Compare first value.

Proof: The activation behaviors of retained and lost users are visible.

00:40

Classify the last ten losses.

Proof: Reasons are evidence-based and grouped without guessing.

01:00

Find the preventable cluster.

Proof: One loss reason the product can responsibly change.

01:20

Write the cohort test.

Proof: A repair, expected behavior, guardrail, and review date.

03 / REPAIR OPTIONS

Choose one. Instrument it. Ship it.

01

Recurring-value cue

Use when
Users succeed once but do not know when to return.
Change
Surface the next natural use moment without manufacturing urgency.
Measure
Second value event and retained use by cohort.
02

Cancellation evidence loop

Use when
Customers leave but reasons are anecdotal.
Change
Capture one short reason, categorize it, and connect it to product evidence.
Measure
Reason coverage and preventable loss rate.
03

Reliability debt repair

Use when
Support and failures erode an otherwise useful product.
Change
Fix the most frequent trust-breaking incident and add monitoring or recovery.
Measure
Incident recurrence, support volume, and cohort retention.

04 / MEASUREMENT CONTRACT

A result needs a denominator and a guardrail.

Primary
Retained or renewed customers by cohort
Leading signal
Second value event within the natural use interval
Guardrail
Support burden, notification complaints, and refund rate
Review window
At least one complete natural renewal or repeat-use interval

05 / STOP CONDITIONS

  • The product's natural use is one-time and retention is the wrong model.
  • The proposed cue relies on unwanted notifications or artificial urgency.
  • The loss reason is acquisition mismatch rather than product durability.

DO NOT DO THIS

  • Do not blend every cohort into one active-user total.
  • Do not call inactivity churn without defining the natural use interval.
  • Do not ship retention messaging before fixing the broken promise.

NEXT MOVE

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